J 2014

Model to evaluate and predict survival of agricultural businesses

VOCHOZKA, Marek, Jarmila STRAKOVÁ and Jan VÁCHAL

Basic information

Original name

Model to evaluate and predict survival of agricultural businesses

Name in Czech

Hodnocení a predikce životaschopnosti zemědělských podniků

Edition

SYLWAN, Warszava, Polskie Towarzystwo Leśne, 2014, 0039-7660

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Článek v odborném periodiku

Field of Study

50200 5.2 Economics and Business

Country of publisher

Poland

Confidentiality degree

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Organization unit

Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice

Keywords (in Czech)

zemědělský podnik; finanční zdraví podniku; bankrotní a bonitní modely; binární logistická regrese; diskriminační analýza; konfuzní matice

Keywords in English

agricultural business; financial health of a business; bankruptcy prediction models; binary logistic regression; discriminant analysis; confusion matrix

Tags

Změněno: 24/10/2014 15:37, Mgr. Václav Karas

Abstract

V originále

In the introductory part the contribution declares the importance of this issue in the context of the common European agricultural policy. So far, no expeditive method has been available for determination of survival of agricultural businesses. A theoretical basis for development of the new method has been describe during the principle of binary logistic (logit) regression and a testing set of data from Czech agricultural businesses was analyzed. Preconditions were defined for creation of the model and individual stages of its development were described. In the results section the contribution presents a model with high predictive power (99.9 %). We can definitely conclude that the newly designed method makes it possible to predict survival of agricultural businesses in the conditions of Czech agricultural sector. The tool can be used both by managements of those businesses, as a high-level indicator for management purposes, and for other stakeholders, i.e. creditors, owners, competitors and others. An assumption has been formulated that it may be possible to develop similar models for the individual countries in Europe and worldwide which would take into account their specific conditions.