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@article{25226, author = {Vochozka, Marek and Straková, Jarmila and Váchal, Jan}, article_location = {Warszava}, article_number = {158}, keywords = {agricultural business; financial health of a business; bankruptcy prediction models; binary logistic regression; discriminant analysis; confusion matrix}, language = {eng}, issn = {0039-7660}, journal = {SYLWAN}, title = {Model to evaluate and predict survival of agricultural businesses}, volume = {roč. 7}, year = {2014} }
TY - JOUR ID - 25226 AU - Vochozka, Marek - Straková, Jarmila - Váchal, Jan PY - 2014 TI - Model to evaluate and predict survival of agricultural businesses JF - SYLWAN VL - roč. 7 IS - 158 SP - 392-407 EP - 392-407 PB - Polskie Towarzystwo Leśne SN - 00397660 KW - agricultural business KW - financial health of a business KW - bankruptcy prediction models KW - binary logistic regression KW - discriminant analysis KW - confusion matrix N2 - In the introductory part the contribution declares the importance of this issue in the context of the common European agricultural policy. So far, no expeditive method has been available for determination of survival of agricultural businesses. A theoretical basis for development of the new method has been describe during the principle of binary logistic (logit) regression and a testing set of data from Czech agricultural businesses was analyzed. Preconditions were defined for creation of the model and individual stages of its development were described. In the results section the contribution presents a model with high predictive power (99.9 %). We can definitely conclude that the newly designed method makes it possible to predict survival of agricultural businesses in the conditions of Czech agricultural sector. The tool can be used both by managements of those businesses, as a high-level indicator for management purposes, and for other stakeholders, i.e. creditors, owners, competitors and others. An assumption has been formulated that it may be possible to develop similar models for the individual countries in Europe and worldwide which would take into account their specific conditions. ER -
VOCHOZKA, Marek, Jarmila STRAKOVÁ a Jan VÁCHAL. Model to evaluate and predict survival of agricultural businesses. \textit{SYLWAN}. Warszava: Polskie Towarzystwo Le\'sne, 2014, roč. 7, č.~158, s.~392-407. ISSN~0039-7660.
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